RESEARCH

Another Brick in the Wall? The Educational Effects of Repurposed Mafia Properties

Presented at: NWSSDTP conference (Lancaster University, 2024) - AMBS Doctoral Conference (University of Manchester, 2024) - CLEAN Unit (Bocconi University, 2024) - Women in State Capacity Conference (Oxford Martin School, 2025) - AYEM Online Seminars (2025) - UniMi-JEM 4th Junior Economics Meeting (2025) - University of Edinburgh - 9th Workshop on the Economics of Organised Crime (2025) - SAEe 2025 (scheduled)

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Abstract: Italy’s anti-Mafia legislation allows confiscated Mafia properties to be converted into educational, cultural, and welfare facilities where local NGOs offer various social activities specifically targeting youth and other vulnerable groups. Although these activities aim to provide alternative role models and renovate formerly Mafia-controlled neighbourhoods, their educational effects remain unexplored. This study provides the first causal estimation of how exposure to these repurposed spaces affects students’ dropout rates by changing their attitudes toward educational and criminal pathways. Using school-level geo-referenced data from 2011 to 2022 and exploiting the staggered timing of property reuse, I investigate changes in local dropout rates. Results reveal a significant reduction in dropout rates of approximately 30% relative to the mean for students near repurposed properties. The effects are not explained by gentrification, additional educational support, or civic engagement levels. Instead, these facilities reshape students’ perception, reducing the appeal of Mafia networks while increasing the value of formal education.

Murder in the Markeplace

with Zachary Porreca and Alexander Cardazzi

BAFFI Centre Research Paper No. 239
Presented at: Internal Micro Applied Seminars (University of Liverpool, 2025) - ViCE Online Seminars (Summer 2025)

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Abstract: Violence is often viewed as an intrinsic feature of illicit markets, driven by competition, disputes, and predation. We argue that the connection between violence and markets is not exclusive to illicit markets and that in the absence of strong institutions these factors exist ubiquitously. Using an estimator of spatial concentration, we document the empirical relationship between violence and markets in the 14th century. We then employ a large language model to analyze the coroner’s accounts of the era’s homicides, finding that many of these incidents were driven by avoidable business-related disputes. Employing a novel difference-in-differences estimator for spatial concentration, we proceed to causally identify the impacts of the introduction of London’s first professional police force in the 19th century on this concentration. We find that the police force’s introduction led to a 54% reduction in the degree of concentration of violence around marketplaces. Our findings suggest that it is not the nature of the commodities being sold in illicit markets that drives violence, but is rather the absense of formal institutions of enforcement and dispute resolution

Mafia and Social Order

with Giuseppe De Feo and Giacomo De Luca

Presented at: Administrative Data Workshop (University of Liverpool, 2024) - Second City History and Economics Meeting (University of Birmingham, 2025)

Abstract: Mafia groups have been developing their power and local control over Sicily since the 19th century by enforcing an alternative institutional system with its own laws. In this paper, we test the historical effect of the Mafia on the legal judiciary as an alternative mechanism of conflict resolution. Under an IV approach, we find that the presence of the Mafia reduces the number of lawyers and the number of civil sentences at the tribunal level.

Beyond the Thin Blue Line: the Localised Effects of Public Space Protection Orders in London

with Enrico Cavallotti and Abhinav Khemka

Presented at: CLEAN Unit Winter Workshop (Bocconi University, 2024) - NWSSDTP Doctoral Conference (Manchester, 2025)

Abstract: In 2014, The Anti-Social Behaviour Act gave British councils the authority to implement Public Space Protection Orders (PSPOs) to prohibit specified activities within a defined public area of their jurisdiction. Although this Act left are wide-ranging and flexible institutional powers to criminalise specific behaviours, its localised effects are still unknown. Using data about the implementation of PSPOs, committed crimes and local indicators of voting and human wellbeing from 2010 to 2024, I explore the effects of this policy of crime and local households.

Beyond the Checkout: The Unseen Effects of Shopping Malls Expansion on Social Capital in Rural Italy

with Bruno Martorano

Abstract: This project investigates the impact of new shopping malls on social capital and education in rural Italy. In small Italian towns, local shops serve as hubs for social interaction, a function malls often lack. We expect shopping mall introduction to affect both the labor market and social capital, indirectly influencing education outcomes over time. Data on mall openings from OpenStreetMap, local employment, salaries, and CSO participation from 1960-2022 will be analyzed. We focus on municipalities with fewer than 5,000 residents, covering 70% of Italy. Additionally, we’re collecting data on school drop-out rates and student performance. The empirical strategy wants to exploit the driving distance from municipalities to shopping malls in rural Italy.